PREFACE

                                                         Post–01   

                         P R E F A C E

   On the eve of my inaugural blog on geopolitics, I may crave the indulgence of my readers that the content to be shared here is not presented as a product of scholarly research, but rather an endeavour on my part to decipher the somewhat puzzling events in geopolitics around us as one of its passionate followers, like you.

      I submit that I am neither capable nor competent to spell out my thoughts on all the huge mass of ongoing current affairs, because in this wide world, hundreds of events are happening round the clock, out of which some create alarm in more or less throughout the globe, others cause a noticeable concern among some countries and in several others, such low-key developments do not spawn any ripple at all beyond national borders of a handful of countries. I propose focusing on the first category of occurrences, unless my readers’ valuable comments indicate that I have overlooked any topic worth discussing. Besides, some current affairs may have their roots in the past. Wherever necessary, such historical background may be referred to briefly (and dealt with separately later). Similarly, the future projection of foreign relations among individual countries or a collective body of such entities may be largely dependent on the reorientation of relations among states or their conglomeration, owing to fresh developments in politics, economics and science. These, too, will receive due attention.

     In short, the flow of events in the international landscape is remarkably dynamic, often belied by calculations or experts’ predictions. Just think– how many of us reckoned that the Russia-Ukraine armed engagement would go on beyond a couple of months?  In short, geopolitical projections have never been so much of an intelligent guess as ever before. Various factors, such as tremendous progress in global communications, the shrinking of physical distance, and the mushrooming of individual countries' national interests, have created such a situation. I may dwell on this aspect of the current brisk pace of changing scenarios in international relations separately, depending on my readers’ interest.

     Well, geography as well as economics, too, may play its part in a new equation between two or an alliance of sovereign political entities. Although an international protocol exists that grants landlocked countries the right to access the sea to meet their import and export needs, a landlocked country often prefers to maintain such sea-bound trade and commercial activities by maintaining friendly relations with its neighbours, thereby facilitating sea routes for trade and commerce.  But the nature and status of such a passage through a neighbouring country are dependent on the wave and tide of mutual relations between the two such countries. For example, though not a landlocked country, for decades Bangladesh used to have a sizable quantity of its exports– mainly ready-made garments– through the seaport of Kolkata in India, despite Bangladesh having several sea ports of its own. The usual practice was to adopt a hybrid mode of first land transportation of the export consignments across the border to the Kolkata river port, followed by transhipment to reach different destinations across the sea. Even in cases where exporters had to meet a fixed timeline for their overseas customers, these export consignments used to cover thousands of kilometres to New Delhi, India, by road for transhipment as air cargo from there. But in the aftermath of the souring of relations between India and Bangladesh triggered by the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of Bangladesh, such facilities have either been curbed or entirely withdrawn. Instances of similar fallouts caused by the development of bitter relations at the micro level, between two big neighbours, such as the US and Canada, post the inauguration of the second term of President Trump, may be cited too. The legislature of the province of British Columbia in Canada empowered the administration to levy a stiff toll tax on all commercial vehicles from the mainland US using its highway to reach Alaska, way back in March 2025, supposedly, as retaliation against President Trump’s unsavoury remarks and veiled threats bordering on insultation of a sovereign country like Canada. But these new legal provisions have not yet been implemented on several practical grounds. For the truckers, there are many other routes through Canada to reach Alaska from the U.S., bypassing the British Columbia province altogether. Hence, there have never been too many commercial vehicles passing through British Columbia from the southern border to reach Alaska, which could yield any considerable amount of revenue either. The British Columbia Truckers Association itself had opposed the implementation of this new Act, as they themselves bring precious timber from Mexico by road, obviously using the American highways midway. That would make it costlier for them if the US government (or one or more states) took similar retaliatory action. This shows how inflammatory relations between two neighbouring countries may overtake rationality, and consequent development of domestic politics can override the realities of geography and economics.

      On the other hand, the geographical location of a country, with its geological and natural assets, including any conspicuous alterations thereof, may play an important role in enhancing or lowering its ascendancy in the international political sphere. Saudi Arabia was a desert kingdom that earned a bulk of its revenue from the money spent by thousands of pilgrims visiting the Holy City of Mecca every year. Even in the early 1930s, Riyadh, the capital city of Saudi Arabia, retained its medieval look with largely mud-built houses. But the discovery of a huge reserve of precious fossil fuel, petroleum, had made a sea change in the economy of the same country by ushering in an age of burgeoning prosperity beyond imagination. 

     Last but not least, the idiosyncrasies of the world leaders played an important and decisive part in the course of international relations among sovereign nations in the past, especially where the rulers were all-powerful, like Hitler of Nazi Germany and Mussolini of Fascist Italy. Post-World War II, dictators like Idi Amin of Uganda, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya and Saddam Hussein of Iraq are still remembered as personifications of evil, disruptive forces in the international arena. In modern times, dictators of similar stature are still found in the three generations of a notoriously secluded family in North Korea, which lately have started creating panic due to its reckless threats and tests of nuclear weapons. Democratic governance of a nation is thought to be a defence against such disruptive forces. But with an ocean of tears, an unending flow of blood, and millions of lost lives through all-out destruction seen all over the world, peace appears to be as elusive as ever. The tremendous pace of scientific progress has added complexity in dealing with the current challenge of maintaining a balance between people's welfare and warfare through a deft handling of foreign relations of sovereign nations numbering nearly 200.

     Let this be a forum for friendly conversations, not for exchanges of fire.

  

[ 1. New content every Friday; 2. A Bengali version of the same every Monday. 3. This Schedule may          be altered under unavoidable circumstances.]