A Multifaceted Study of the Russia–Ukraine War (2022.....?) Part-2/2

                                                                                                                 POST- 4

A Multifaceted Study of the Russia-UkraineWar    (2022…?) [Part-2/2]

---A Complex Mix of Cultural Contestations with the Skewed  Geo-political 

Ecosystem                

  3.  The immediate cause of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022

     Honestly speaking, it may be averred that, unlike many armed conflicts currently being fought in many parts of the world, no single action or circumstance could be assigned as the last straw on the back of a camel that could have triggered Russia's invasion of Ukraine as the “special military operation”.Tensions had been building up on both sides of the national borders ever since the occupation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. On the ground, it was observed that nearly 1,40000  ethnic Ukrainians were squeezed out of Ukraine. In contrast, nearly 2,25,000 Russian-speaking people crossed over to Crimea for permanent settlement, many of them being Russian servicemen–serving or former– with their families. This change in the demographic profile of Crimea consolidated the Russian hold on Crimea, followed by a massive infrastructure development programmes launched worth $10 billion, one of the notable projects being the completion of a bridge spanning kilometres to connect Crimea with Russia by road. In contrast, in the eastern part of Ukraine, having a sizeable chunk of Russian-speaking population had started armed agitations against the government in Kyiv for independence, which, according to the Russian version, were crushed by the use of brutal force, including the use of tanks and air raids. As a result, the Russian-speaking populations of that area have declared two independent states named Donbas and Luhansk. Subsequently, Russia had officially recognised these two states and demanded the withdrawal of all Ukrainian forces from there.

  4.    A Brief Status Report 0n the Ongoing War between Russia and Ukraine

 Russia termed its invasion of Ukraine, which got underway on the 24th of February 2022, as a “Special Military Operation” to upend the entire Donbas area of the forcible occupation of the Ukrainian army that was alleged to have been committing horrible acts of repression against the civilian population. The first wave of the Russian attack was launched through the northern boundary of Ukraine from Belarus (virtually a vassal state of Russia) with the obvious intention of taking over the capital Kyiv by staging a rapid advancement of the Russian infantry to replicate its tactics that bore fruit in the case of Crimea. But here the Russian army met with tough defence of Ukraine that could repulse the pressure, and secured the capital from imminent fall. Almost simultaneously, the Russian army opened new fronts in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, where the Ukrainian administration had been engaged with the local armed groups of Russian-speaking rebellious elements for years. Ukraine put up stiff resistance with the modern, sophisticated arms and ammunition, worth billions (about $175 billion from the U.S. and $197 billion from the European Union), received from the Western powers. A big surge in the nationalistic fervour was noticed among the civilians, too. But that was not enough to stop the invading Russian army from consolidating its occupation of the Donbas and southern regions, though at the cost of armed personnel and war machines. By one estimate, Russia has suffered a loss of nearly 2,50,000 army personnel and many more out of service due to injuries. On the other hand, Ukraine is reported to have a lesser number of fatalities, numbering around 1,25,000 on its ranks, though a large part of the country has been devastated through constant aerial attacks by Russia. Similar attacks by Ukraine have not been able to cause similar damage to Russian assets as a solid, highly reactive defence system has already been in place all over the Russian mainland, and the U.S.is recuctant to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles to enable the latter to attack deep into Russia too often. Things as they are, nearly four years since the full-scale invasion by Russia, more or less 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory is under occupation by the latter. Blowing hot and cold as usual on both sides has been going on for some time. The harsh winter with heavy snowfall has naturally toned down the ferocity of the land-based engagements.  However, in the midst of all such bellicosity, another round of a three-day trilaterial negogiation has stared on last Wednesday (4th. of February) at Abu Dhabi involving the U.S. and the two parties at war.

  5.     A Diagnostic Overview of the War

      In the first place, while discussing an armed conflict going on for nearly four years, costing the lives of thousands of civilians and men in uniform, as well as turning thousands of them into asylum seekers having lost their homes, one must untie the tangle, a result of self-centred historical perspectives of contesting parties and extant geopolitical realities. Unlike many wars fought in the past, this one is not just a sample case of mere land grabbing of a weaker nation by a stronger neighbour. In this case, the growth of animosity between the two nations at war may appear to contain   both fissile and fusion materials in store for closer understanding in the following parts:-

                 a) The historical background of the inter-relationship between the two warring nations is to be studied in depth to get into the psyche of the adversaries, once a part of a larger union of states, having different historical narratives on both sides of their national borders. As already mentioned above, in 1954, Nikita Khrushchev, the man leading the  U.S.S.R., gave away the administrative control of Crimea to Ukraine to commemorate the tricentenary of the union of Ukraine with the Tsarist Russia. The Ukrainians, too, had their share of glory in the fact that Kievan-Rus, founded in the late 9th century as the first East Slavic state, had the present-day city of Kyiv as its capital and a principal culture centre, serving as a renowned trading hub with the principalities of western Asia.  In all likelihood, though not visibly pronounced, many of the top leaders of Russian ethnicity might be harbouring traces of a superiority complex in their minds during the Soviet rule(Khrushchev married a Ukrainian lady, though). On the other hand, the Ukrainians might be very sensitive about their glorious past, which they thought surpassed that of their Russian brethren.

             b)  During the Soviet era, Russian was the primary language for all the states of the union. Both the Russian and the Ukrainian languages use the same script called Cyrillic. Except for a couple of letters, the alphabet of these two languages is identical, but that is not the casewith their grammar and vocabulary. Due to historical factors, most Ukrainians are bilingual, whereas the Russians tend to remain monolingual. Such one-way social interaction is bound to create a continued feeling of being slighted among the Ukrainians. In fact, post dissolution of the USSR, the Russian-speaking population in the eastern part of Ukraine were up in arms as the government in Kyiv enacted laws to ensure primacy of the Ukrainian language in educational institutions and offices. Russia termed this a serious case of linguistic repression. The unrest of these Russian-speaking people gained momentum with the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, ultimately leading to two self-declared independent republics of Donetsk and Luhansk earning recognition by Russia.

        c)   The personalities of the top leaders in both countries at war also played a very significant part in the ongoing war. Putin has been at the helm of affairs in Russia for a long time. He appears to enjoy his position as the top leader of a major world power, though post 1991 Russia has lost its shine as a superpower. On the other hand, compared to his counterpart, Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine was a greenhorn. Before his joining politics as a presidential candidatein In 2019, he was a very popular tv actor known for his immensely popular tv show, “Servant of the People.”  It is said that he had acted in many more Russian language tv show and serials than what you did in his mother tongue. As an actor, he was a household name in Russia, too. The transformation of an actor to become a seasoned player on the complex geopolitical chessboard rarely happens.

      d)   Global geopolitics is in a transitional phase since the end of the Cold War days.  Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991,  the US has become the sole superpower on earth, and Western European powers have become subservient to the U.S. global influence. With their unstable economy and reduced military power, they usually found themselves helpless without American endorsement. In such an uncertain situation, Ukraine was a mismatch for a much stronger power like Russia.

6.  When will Peace win over War

         The ongoing war is not likely to run beyond 5 to 6 months from now for the following reasons:-

         i) Natural Exhaustion Factor-- Both the warring nations appear to have become exhausted. Neither of them has any declared allies. Russia has more or less achieved its objectives relating to the occupation of the Donbas area in Ukraine by securing its foothold there. There might be occasional occurrences of line of control, but by and large, Ukraine does not appear to be strong enough to push back the Russian forces further out of the recognised international border. President Trump of the U.S., being such an unpredictable personality, the European powers under the umbrella of NATO are not likely to go beyond the supply of arms and ammunition to Ukraine. Besides, due to the sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian gas and oil, the highly industrialised Europeans nations are on the brink of economic collapse. The present American government is no longer willing to bear the lion’s share of the cost of waging war. Ukraine alone does not have the resources and manpower to continue the war indefinitely until the victory of its choice.  Russia may have enough firepower to continue the war, but only at the cost of the suffering of the people, caused by the scarcity of consumer goods of daily need at home, as time and money are being diverted to war efforts for years.

      ii) Russia in a Compromising Mood– Putin has shown his country’s military power beyond any doubt to his potential adversaries. President Trump must have comprehended by now that pushing Putin further in Ukraine could be a geopolitical blunder, as this may strengthen the unwarranted bond between Russia and China, the latter having been designated as the principal threat to the security of the U.S., as per the published document entitled “ National Security Strategy,2026”. Russia is wary of sanctions by the potential rich buyers of the Western world and is selling crude petroleum at heavily discounted prices to a handful of countries. It has been indicated that post-war, he happens to be ready to come in a big way to the reconstruction efforts of Ukraine, provided that the frozen assets of $300 billion are released and all sanctions are lifted by the U.S. and its allies.

     iii) Zelenskyy too Ready to Step Down– The regular presidential election in Ukraine is overdue for 3 years. Even though, as per the latest survey, the approval rating of President Zelenskyy is satisfactory, his success in the next election (not likely to go back to his acting profession) will largely depend on how early and with how much dignity the ongoing war will end for Ukraine.  It's most likely that a midway solution may be worked out in respect of the Dornbass area, under which wider autonomy for the so-called Republics of Donesk and Luhansk would be documented after withdrawal of the Russian forces. An arrangement may be worked out for engaging the U.N peace-keeping forces in these war-ravaged areas eastern part of Ukraine, until final settlement of the disputes on its status to the satisfaction of both the nations at war.  In return, the accession of Crimea to Russia might be regularised.

      iv) Threat Perception has Altered on Both Sides– Eastern European powers have come to understand that they could not rely upon the unqualified neural and material support of the U.S. on any programme of northward extension of NATO. USA, on the other hand, I on the natural resources potentially available in the eastern part of Ukraine.

     v) The Genuine Efforts of President Trump–President Trump is indeed trying very hard to find a resolution to theconflicting interests ofthe nations at war. He is personally involved in putting an end to this war. The American mid-term elections are vital for President Trump. A peace accord before that might ensured a Republican victory to strengthen his support base in Congress beyond doubt.

        

       If peace actually dawns upon Ukraine-Russia, who knows, his dream “Nobel Gold medal for Peace” may fall on his lap as a bonus, too.

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Image Credit: MS Co-pilot AI

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